Digital Trends for 2012 – Security, Architecture & Commerce
2012 will be a big year as we become increasingly connected with digital technologies.
Gartner has identified 10 Strategic Technologies for 2012 in a report published in mid-October – it’s worth reading and the time to digest as the trends that they outlined will be very relevant to many organisations. Ericsson have also recently released a visionary video about the Networked Society.
Building on this, and from conversations that I’ve had over the past 6 months, I believe there are 3 trends which will also be very prominent in 2012, and will ultimately impact the digital industry’s developement in the future:
(please note that I’m referring to both online [web] and mobile information and services where I refer to ‘digital’)
#1: Personal Data Security
With the prevalence of social media technologies there are already a number of debates on this topic – where is our personal data being stored, how is it being used (in particular in relation to targeted advertising), how can it be permanently deleted etc. However, as an avid fan of services like Dropbox, the recovery of personal data from the cloud also hit home for me recently when I could no longer access my data on a portable hard drive – what would happen if this happened to services in the cloud? In this case, of course companies very probably have fail-safe measures in place… (you would hope)
But there is an absence of global common standards to which companies need to adhere to with regards to personal data – in terms of how it is being used, and how it can be recovered, and how it can be removed permanently from the cloud.
In 2012, with the continual rise of cloud computing and connected services it will become a bigger issue, and one that needs to be resolved. It’s likely that a set of global common standards regarding Personal Data Security will emerge by the end of 2012, either driven by governments or a collective body such as the International Organisation for Standardization (ISO).
#2: Digital Architecture
It will be important for organisations to understand and have in place a architecture that is scalable, flexible, and allows for rapid development of digital products and services. This will allow them to take advantage of digital trends, new digital products, much more easily and quickly at a lower cost.
Some organisations, particular in the media industry, have started to recognise this and have put in a lot of effort to get to this point this year (2011). Others are just starting to realise this and make the budget available for this development in the coming 12 months. Either way, expect a large number of companies to have in place a mature digital architecture strategy (even if the architecture itself is not complete) by the end of 2012.
See the post titled ‘Past Present & Future – An Architectural View‘ which further details the thinking behind this point.
#3: Commerce Continues to Develop
Digital Commerce (e- / m- / NFC / Banking / digital transactions / authentication) is still in it’s infancy – yes, there are some very established services in the market (eBay, Amazon, PayPal, Groupon), but the majority of the population have not engaged with services very deeply and still prefer physical payment for goods and services.
There are a large number of e-Commerce jobs being advertised at the moment by brands in mainland Europe (where e-Commerce is traditionally not as developed as in London or the US), which gives a good indication that e-Commerce will become much more prevalent for this region in 2012. New NFC services in the market such as Google Wallet, and Quick Tap (Orange and Barclaycard in the UK) will further digitalise the commerce landscape. And as banking services become more accessible on mobile, users will become more comfortable with digital transactions on the move.
These are just a few trends, but there’s still a long way to go with the development of Digital Commerce services in 2012. Towards the end of 2012, once the prevalence of services has increased significantly compared to 2011, the focus will shift to find ways of driving deeper engagement (more frequent usage) from consumers.
Read also: How Google, eBay, And PayPal Are Gearing Up For A Very Mobile Holiday Shopping Season
Past, Present, and Future – an Architectural View
I attended an event on Monday this week which was centered around Mobile Banking, and had several great speakers including Credit Suisse, Danske Bank*, and DAB Bank. There was valuable insight from all companies presenting, but in particular Toby Weston and Milan Sismanovic‘s view of the Past, Present, and Future of mobile banking struck a chord.
Briefly summarised:
PAST – Innovation focus
It’s been important for companies to innovate on digital and mobile technologies to test what delivers engagement, and in the case of banking, how successfully they can work with security, risk, consumer trust, and user experience considerations. It has been necessary to provide a proof of concept to their stakeholders and that it will deliver the return on investment they are seeking.
PRESENT – Importance of Architecture
The next stage to work out a way to deliver a full scale solution on which you can continue to maintain, roll out to multiple platforms and devices, and innovate on in a cost-effective way. The way to do this is to understand and establish a common architecture which is scalable will not only future proof the roll out of technology, but will also speed up innovation and reduce the cost of development through modular design and re-use.
FUTURE – Post-PC World
We’re already seeing that paradigms are changing rapidly and they will continue to do so. Think wearable technology (most notably, the iPod Nano is getting there with watch straps), flexible screens, and access anywhere. Hence having scalable, flexible architecture in place is essential.
This view doesn’t just relate to banking, or even just to mobile, but it represents a great view of digital software development and how to successfully navigate the ‘networked society’ era.
View the full presentation slideshow from Credit Suisse here.
*If you haven’t seen the Danske Bank iPhone app, check it out on the app store here.
A Networked Society – short film by Ericsson
I came across this video the other day when it was published on Techcrunch - titled Networked Society ‘On The Brink’, and sponsored by Ericsson.
It’s a really informative mini-documentary (21 mins long) about some of the rapid changes and innovations that we are seeing as we become more and more ‘networked’.
To paraphrase a couple of quotes for the video: “We’re just at the beginning of seeing what we’re going to build together…. we’re at the lightbulb stage of the internet”
Revisiting the Definition of “High-Tech” in Relation to the Mobile & Digital Industry
I was looking up a definition for High-Tech the other day on the web, and interestingly the definition is very fuzzy. Wikipedia even mentions “There is no specific class of technology that is high tech — the definition shifts over time”.
A few years ago for my dissertation I researched whether Mobile could be considered as a High-Technology market or not. I found the differentiating factors of a High-Tech (vs. Low-Tech) market to be:
Market Factors:
- High uncertainty of the market
- Low barriers to entry
- Competitive Volatility
- Technology functions within an ecosystem (of additional services, products, companies and other externalities)
Product Factors:
- Complex products
- Rapid innovation and obsolescence
- High R&D expenditure with a strong technical orientation (vs. consumer orientation)
- Product standards are in the process of being established (but don’t yet exist)
User/Consumer Factors:
- High user/consumer involvement with the product
- Higher user/consumer perceived risk
Hills & Sarin (2003); Mohr & Shooshtari (2003); Easingwood & Koustelos (2000); Meldrum (1995); Moriarty & Kosnik (1989); Gardner et al. (2000)
These factors defining high-tech are relevant to the mobile (and digital) industries that we see today, and interestingly these can be used explain the evolution and challenges that the market is going through.
However, the mobile and digital market has evolved now to the point that within the industry itself there are evidently differing degrees of High-tech and Low-tech. You can really get a sense of this in sales-cycles of different products and services.
So, within the industry what is the differentiating factor?
It appears to be Business Operations-oriented technology (B2B, Enterprise) versus Consumer-oriented technology (B2C).
Business Operations-Oriented Technology is far more complex, the R&D is far more technology-focused (vs consumer focused), implementation/development is more complex and takes longer, the perceived risk of the client is higher, and consequently the sales cycle is much longer.
Fragmentation & Proliferation are here to stay
The other day I was asked this question, in relation to the development of mobile applications: “what would you put your money into – the development of an Apple iOS application or a Google Android application?”.
I am asked different variations of this question by companies and clients at least monthly.
When I started out in the mobile industry, there were only 3 screen sizes to develop for (126 x 160; 176 x 220; 240 x 320) and only a handful of operating systems (Nokia being the most prolific). Now mobile technology is developing at such a fast pace that we’re seeing continual proliferation of screen-sizes (particularly with the introduction of tablets) and fragmentation of platforms and operating systems.
Note that there is some consolidation in operating systems and platforms in the industry, but there will always be around four major platforms (regardless of market) that you need to take into consideration when planning how to engage with your users.
This of course creates additional cost for companies in order to develop applications across all screen sizes and platforms, and consequently companies need to be selective about what platforms they develop for. So hence why the question keeps being asked. There are ways to create cost-efficiencies when developing across multiple platforms and operating systems, but for the time being the majority of companies tend to be single-platform focused, at least until they’ve initially proven their return on investment.
So the answer to the question is really 3 different questions:
- What product / service are you wanting to offer your users?
- What devices are your users mainly wanting to engage with you on? (iPhone for example)
- Who is the market you’re trying to engage with, and what device are they mostly using? (London is different from Switzerland, which is different from Middle East, which is different from the US)
So it’s unfortunately not as simple to put your money into iOS or Google Android – it all depends on what you’re trying to achieve….
….and fragmentation and proliferation is here to stay.
Apple’s Keynote: 3 Game-Changing Announcements
Apple didn’t fail to disappoint last night at their keynote speech.
Apple don’t necessarily bring new ideas to the market, but they manage to package ideas in such a way that they achieve mass-market appeal – successfully bridging the gap between Innovators and Early Adopters (ref: Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations curve). By doing this they set technology trends in motion that other companies will follow and develop on, and launch technology which is integrated even deeper into our lifestyle and achieves a greater degree of ‘connectedness’.
Of the entire keynote, three such game-changing announcements were made:
- Voice-Operated Personal Assistant (Siri)
Voice control becomes mainstream. It’s yet to be seen how successful this is going to be – voice control can be exceptionally difficult to achieve. But if Apple are investing in the technology (Note: Techcrunch estimates they paid $200m in Aug 2010 to acquire Siri), this means that it’ll remain supported and companies will continue to develop applications.
- Seamless synchronisation between devices (iCloud)
This isn’t new, but Apple have done it in such a way that the user doesn’t need to be remotely technical to understand how to do it or why someone would want to. It just makes sense.
- The iPod Nano – wearable technology
Watch faces and straps, and exercise data are very clever additions. All of a sudden we have wearable technology which is being adopted by the mainstream market. Take this forward a year to 18 months, and you can envisage the iPad Nano being able to access the internet, make phone calls, be your personal assistant… all while wearing the technology, rather than holding it as a handset.
You might ask, “are these really game-changing?”. In short, yes, as they will create new revenue opportunities and growth across the technology ecosystem.
Each of these 3 announcements will have a profound impact on personal technology (our phones, our MP3 players, our computers etc) and how we use it. They also create new revenue and growth opportunities across the consumer-technology ecosystem. Therefore, you can expect to see even more consumer-tech out there in the market in the next 12-18 months with these features (although, Apple will still undoubtedly dominate the use of it for a few years!).
Watch the iPhone 4S video and the Keynote at Apple.com
Read Everything You Need To Know About Today’s Apple Event on Techcrunch
